Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
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On the economic plate, next week's really pretty light. The big event is the big event, four letters: F-O-M-C. After the week we just had, we about cleaned up everything; we now have plenty of time to focus on the Fed.
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Everybody knows what the Fed is doing, but no one knows which move is going to impact the market. I call it a version of Federal Reserve water torture: a drop at a time and after a while it will drive you absolutely batty.
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The fact that food sales outperformed other product categories last month is part of what's going on with the economy and its impact on consumers, ... Also, there was a time when Wal-Mart was eating everyone's lunch. Other stores have been getting their act together and they've reduced the growth gap between them and Wal-Mart.
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What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
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The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
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During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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Prices don't decline like this unless you've got a lot of slack demand conditions.
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Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
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People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises. Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful.
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The tale of the zombie consumer continues, ... There is no stopping him or her: Can't shoot 'em, stab 'em, or keep 'em away from the stores with garlic -- especially with post-season sales in progress.