Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
june months previous view
My view is the previous months were the aberrant month, and June makes more sense.
across fed horizons inflation left months rising six waiting wondering
Inflation is rising in more sectors than it is falling. It is doing so across horizons of one month, six months and 12 months. We are left in all this wondering what the Fed is up to and what it is waiting for.
compensate energy eventually fact itself month period prices work works
Eventually you have other prices going down to compensate for the fact that energy went up. But that doesn't work itself out in a month or two; it works out over a period of time.
good growth job month private report sector thanks trends
Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
categories eating economy fact food gap growth impact last month product reduced sales stores time together
The fact that food sales outperformed other product categories last month is part of what's going on with the economy and its impact on consumers, ... Also, there was a time when Wal-Mart was eating everyone's lunch. Other stores have been getting their act together and they've reduced the growth gap between them and Wal-Mart.
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
change fed growth jobs last less month next number six weak zero
But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
categories clearly consumers divided good lots main money optimism results shown spending
We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
cuts job seeing stay
We're still seeing job cuts in manufacturing, and it's going to stay that way for some time.
markets radar reason recession stock talk
There is a reason for stock markets to be worried. But I don't think we need to talk about recession yet -- it's not on the radar screen.
aggressive banks curtail economic extent feeds less risk taking
The extent to which it feeds back to you and me is that banks become less aggressive about taking risk ... and this could curtail economic activity.
average breathe critical earnings easily fed federal job nice rate reserve
We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.