Rick Sherlund
Rick Sherlund
anecdotal believe capital capture catching coming data estimates falling knife magnitude results spending street year
Estimating results has been like catching a falling knife this year and we do not believe Street estimates yet capture the magnitude of capital spending constraints going into 2002, particularly considering anecdotal data coming out of Europe.
begin believe benefit cycles earnings increase late momentum office revenue stock upgrade windows
We believe there will be an increase in revenue and earnings momentum and a corresponding benefit to the stock as Windows Vista and Office 12 upgrade cycles begin late in the year.
believe changed data estimates management posture recent street
Microsoft's management has not changed its posture on the quarter, but we believe recent data suggests that Street estimates may need to come down,
bad believe news software
We do not believe all the bad news is out yet in the software sector.
appeal believe investors issue leading possibly prominent
We believe investors will need to hunker down for a potentially long process, possibly leading through appeal into 2001, ... For now, this will be a prominent issue but may become a back-burner issue during lulls in the action.
believe below earlier encouraged flow good growth historic likely products raised relative safe shares stock valued
We are encouraged by this and have raised estimates, essentially back to earlier levels. While the stock is richly valued and the growth is still well below historic levels, we believe there is a good flow of upcoming new products and the shares are likely a relative safe harbor.
believe bit group likely oracle quarter rest results september shy software
Extrapolating from Oracle as a bellwether for the rest of the software sector, we believe the September quarter results for the group will likely come in a bit shy of estimates,
believe business determined given monopoly operating provides systems
We believe this provides little to no remedy, given that the operating systems business is still a monopoly business as determined by the court.
added appears believe clear dimension front oracle platform shift systems
We believe that there is a clear platform shift underway from earlier-generation client-server systems to more Internet-enabled client-server systems and the added new dimension of business-to-business commerce. Oracle appears to be out in front of this issue.
advertising estimates growth last pc potential reflect slower sluggish week
We trimmed estimates last week to reflect even more sluggish PC demand, the potential for slower server growth and slower on-line advertising for MSN,
advantage both calendar designed drive due expect features further generation half likely next office products release revenue second windows
We expect the release of Windows Vista and Office 12 to further drive revenue as both products are being designed to take advantage of collaborative features in the next generation of server products (SQL Server 2005, BizTalk Server 2006, and the 'Longhorn' or Vista Server likely due out in the second half of calendar 2007).
basis corporate december entirely estimates further pc point quarter results revising stock woods
The stock may not yet be entirely out of the woods if the December quarter results do not show some further re-acceleration in corporate PC demand, at which point there may be a better basis for revising estimates further,
continue good level month months news next stock three
The stock had been at about this level just a month ago, and I think this is going to continue to be a damper, at least for the next three months or so. The news doesn't look like it's going to be good for a while.
above evidence given pc quarter reduced results slowing
The results were above our estimates, which had been reduced during the quarter given evidence of slowing PC demand.