Rick Sherlund
Rick Sherlund
advertising estimates growth last pc potential reflect slower sluggish week
We trimmed estimates last week to reflect even more sluggish PC demand, the potential for slower server growth and slower on-line advertising for MSN,
basis corporate december entirely estimates further pc point quarter results revising stock woods
The stock may not yet be entirely out of the woods if the December quarter results do not show some further re-acceleration in corporate PC demand, at which point there may be a better basis for revising estimates further,
above evidence given pc quarter reduced results slowing
The results were above our estimates, which had been reduced during the quarter given evidence of slowing PC demand.
account consumer corporate demand estimate likely line pc percent relatively revision sales total
Consumer PC sales account for only about 10 percent of Microsoft's total revenues, so with corporate demand likely in line with expectations, our estimate revision is only relatively moderate,
appear due earlier estimate evidence fast growing growth likely march november occurred offset pc quarter reducing revenue sluggish unit weakness
We are reducing our March quarter revenue estimate due to growing evidence that PC unit growth did not likely come up to our expectations. PC growth was very sluggish from November through February, and while it reaccelerated in March, it does not appear to have occurred fast enough to offset the weakness earlier in the quarter.
atrophy growth ibm increasing microsoft might pc platform risk robust wireless
There is an increasing risk that Microsoft might atrophy on the PC platform as IBM did on the mainframe platform, while robust growth shifts to hand-held and wireless devices,
advantage both calendar designed drive due expect features further generation half likely next office products release revenue second windows
We expect the release of Windows Vista and Office 12 to further drive revenue as both products are being designed to take advantage of collaborative features in the next generation of server products (SQL Server 2005, BizTalk Server 2006, and the 'Longhorn' or Vista Server likely due out in the second half of calendar 2007).
continue good level month months news next stock three
The stock had been at about this level just a month ago, and I think this is going to continue to be a damper, at least for the next three months or so. The news doesn't look like it's going to be good for a while.
anecdotal believe capital capture catching coming data estimates falling knife magnitude results spending street year
Estimating results has been like catching a falling knife this year and we do not believe Street estimates yet capture the magnitude of capital spending constraints going into 2002, particularly considering anecdotal data coming out of Europe.
build stock year
As the year progresses, the stock will build its multiple.
appears business currently line management plans spoken tracking
We have spoken with management and there are currently no plans for an pre-announcement, as business appears to be tracking in line with expectations,
begin believe benefit cycles earnings increase late momentum office revenue stock upgrade windows
We believe there will be an increase in revenue and earnings momentum and a corresponding benefit to the stock as Windows Vista and Office 12 upgrade cycles begin late in the year.
basic broken cannot company easily management marketing microsoft product research sales support
Microsoft cannot easily be broken up. It is a unitary company with one management team, one headquarters, one set of sales and marketing offices, one sales force, one product support organization, one basic research unit, etc.
cap combine company equal far ford general growth half market premier trading
Microsoft's market cap right now is $208 billion. If you were to combine Ford and General Motors market cap(s) . . . that would only equal half of (Microsoft's) market cap. Granted, (Microsoft) by far is the premier growth company in the world today. But again, it is trading at 60 times earnings,