Rick Sherlund
Rick Sherlund
advantage both calendar designed drive due expect features further generation half likely next office products release revenue second windows
We expect the release of Windows Vista and Office 12 to further drive revenue as both products are being designed to take advantage of collaborative features in the next generation of server products (SQL Server 2005, BizTalk Server 2006, and the 'Longhorn' or Vista Server likely due out in the second half of calendar 2007).
bad likely news reflected
significant bad news may likely already be reflected in the stock.
believe below earlier encouraged flow good growth historic likely products raised relative safe shares stock valued
We are encouraged by this and have raised estimates, essentially back to earlier levels. While the stock is richly valued and the growth is still well below historic levels, we believe there is a good flow of upcoming new products and the shares are likely a relative safe harbor.
believe bit group likely oracle quarter rest results september shy software
Extrapolating from Oracle as a bellwether for the rest of the software sector, we believe the September quarter results for the group will likely come in a bit shy of estimates,
account consumer corporate demand estimate likely line pc percent relatively revision sales total
Consumer PC sales account for only about 10 percent of Microsoft's total revenues, so with corporate demand likely in line with expectations, our estimate revision is only relatively moderate,
appear due earlier estimate evidence fast growing growth likely march november occurred offset pc quarter reducing revenue sluggish unit weakness
We are reducing our March quarter revenue estimate due to growing evidence that PC unit growth did not likely come up to our expectations. PC growth was very sluggish from November through February, and while it reaccelerated in March, it does not appear to have occurred fast enough to offset the weakness earlier in the quarter.
likely march questions raise strength
Intel's pre-announcement will likely raise questions about the strength of Microsoft's March quarter.
advertising estimates growth last pc potential reflect slower sluggish week
We trimmed estimates last week to reflect even more sluggish PC demand, the potential for slower server growth and slower on-line advertising for MSN,
basis corporate december entirely estimates further pc point quarter results revising stock woods
The stock may not yet be entirely out of the woods if the December quarter results do not show some further re-acceleration in corporate PC demand, at which point there may be a better basis for revising estimates further,
continue good level month months news next stock three
The stock had been at about this level just a month ago, and I think this is going to continue to be a damper, at least for the next three months or so. The news doesn't look like it's going to be good for a while.
anecdotal believe capital capture catching coming data estimates falling knife magnitude results spending street year
Estimating results has been like catching a falling knife this year and we do not believe Street estimates yet capture the magnitude of capital spending constraints going into 2002, particularly considering anecdotal data coming out of Europe.
above evidence given pc quarter reduced results slowing
The results were above our estimates, which had been reduced during the quarter given evidence of slowing PC demand.
build stock year
As the year progresses, the stock will build its multiple.
appears business currently line management plans spoken tracking
We have spoken with management and there are currently no plans for an pre-announcement, as business appears to be tracking in line with expectations,