Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
believe demand housing leads likely minimum mortgage recent rise weakness
There's already been a considerable softening in housing demand which preceded the recent rise in mortgage rates. Which leads me to believe that the weakness at a minimum will continue, and may likely accelerate.
context favorable fed gives inevitable inflation latitude past rate recent seen
This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.
bubbling concern fed inflation measured path since start year
On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.
carrying course firm likely momentum sustained
We're carrying firm momentum into 2006 which is likely to be sustained over the course of the year.
apparent bush changed economists house influence quite small throughout white
The apparent influence of White House economists has been quite small throughout the Bush administration, which hasn't changed much of late.
coming family market peaked report
Today's report confirms that the single-family market has peaked this summer, and it's coming off gradually.
across appears business consistent expansion healthy hearing improvement momentum reflects saw sentiment
This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board.
housing peak recognize summer year
When we look back a year from now I think we'll recognize the summer of 2005 as the peak of the housing boom.
consumers economy excess healthy major prop spending
We have consumers spending in a healthy but not excess pace. They are an important prop to the economy but not a major driver.
confront extremely future high price risk
extremely overvalued and confront a high risk of a future price correction.
consumers continue difficult environment high light oil persevere
Consumers continue to persevere in a difficult environment in light of high oil prices,
areas conditions labor outside sustained welcome
It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.
based beginning early soft
It's early in the game, but based on what we have seen, this is beginning to play out as a soft landing.
abysmal consumer extremely face hurricane october played report role spending taking value weak
Taking it at face value, the hurricane played a big role in contributing to the weakness. Consumer spending was abysmal in October and November. It's an extremely weak report overall.