Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
activity august clarify help raises seeing slowing stake
We are seeing a slowing in manufacturing activity in August that raises the stake of the ISM index which will help clarify some of today's confusion.
builders continue decline demand eventually expect family housing seen
We have seen and I expect will continue to see a softening of demand for single-family housing that has been unmatched by a decline in construction. Eventually builders get with the program.
might next shock time
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.
addition final inventory looks outside quite rebuilding strength
If you go outside of autos, manufacturing still looks quite healthy. There is a need for inventory rebuilding in addition to the strength in final demand.
credible talking
If you go back just 90 days, there were credible assertions of $100-a-barrel oil. No one is talking about that anymore.
confront extremely future high price risk
extremely overvalued and confront a high risk of a future price correction.
across appears business consistent expansion healthy hearing improvement momentum reflects saw sentiment
This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board.
housing peak recognize summer year
When we look back a year from now I think we'll recognize the summer of 2005 as the peak of the housing boom.
consumers economy excess healthy major prop spending
We have consumers spending in a healthy but not excess pace. They are an important prop to the economy but not a major driver.
due exactly february january knew mild month spending surprises
There are not a lot of surprises here. We knew February will be a down month in spending after a torrid January due to mild weather. This is exactly what we got.
area cards demand expect likely side supply sync takes time
When demand shifts, it often takes time for supply side to get in sync ... I would still expect some softening is likely in the cards in the Dayton area as we go through this year.
equally expect mean orderly
For the U.S. as a whole, I expect we're going to have an orderly correction. But that doesn't mean it's going to be equally orderly in all places.
continue economic half hold levels likely lower maybe mortgage next pace past period quite rates
If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.
becoming far income increases price
It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains,