Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
might next shock time
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.
close later point quarter
We're awfully close to the end of the game. They've got another quarter point in them. We'll see it later this month.
credit guides industry markets reassuring sending signals useful whatever
The credit markets have been very useful guides to industry prospects. Whatever reassuring signals they are sending shouldn't be ignored.
becoming far income increases price
It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains,
increased market perception responding
I think the market is responding now to a perception of the increased possibility of recession, which I do not see.
due exactly february january knew mild month spending surprises
There are not a lot of surprises here. We knew February will be a down month in spending after a torrid January due to mild weather. This is exactly what we got.
area cards demand expect likely side supply sync takes time
When demand shifts, it often takes time for supply side to get in sync ... I would still expect some softening is likely in the cards in the Dayton area as we go through this year.
although businesses condition correction economic indicate optimistic outlook results slight small stance
Although there was a slight correction in the outlook index, the results still indicate an optimistic stance on the economic condition for small businesses in the Midwest.
believe demand housing leads likely minimum mortgage recent rise weakness
There's already been a considerable softening in housing demand which preceded the recent rise in mortgage rates. Which leads me to believe that the weakness at a minimum will continue, and may likely accelerate.
admission fed january locks march neutral odds strong
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.
fourth reflecting report sector strong
This is a very strong report overall, reflecting of the manufacturing sector rebounding through the fourth quarter.
economy event good month return seemed serious
This is a return to normalcy, and that is especially good after what seemed like a much more serious event for the economy just a month or two ago.
activity august clarify help raises seeing slowing stake
We are seeing a slowing in manufacturing activity in August that raises the stake of the ISM index which will help clarify some of today's confusion.
caused concern economic increase january marked oil related
January marked an end to the economic concern caused by the hurricanes ... and the related increase in oil prices.