Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
areas conditions labor outside sustained welcome
It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.
across appears business consistent expansion healthy hearing improvement momentum reflects saw sentiment
This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board.
housing peak recognize summer year
When we look back a year from now I think we'll recognize the summer of 2005 as the peak of the housing boom.
confront extremely future high price risk
extremely overvalued and confront a high risk of a future price correction.
consumers economy excess healthy major prop spending
We have consumers spending in a healthy but not excess pace. They are an important prop to the economy but not a major driver.
apparent bush changed economists house influence quite small throughout white
The apparent influence of White House economists has been quite small throughout the Bush administration, which hasn't changed much of late.
caused concern economic increase january marked oil related
January marked an end to the economic concern caused by the hurricanes ... and the related increase in oil prices.
average coming consumer fairly healthy months picture
Look at the two months together, average them out, what we still get is a fairly healthy picture of the consumer coming out of the fourth-quarter doldrums.
clear declined demand few figure housing interest large market past rates rising
I think it's indisputable that demand in the housing market has declined in the past few months. It's very clear that rising interest rates figure very large in that decline.
becoming far income increases price
It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains,
increased market perception responding
I think the market is responding now to a perception of the increased possibility of recession, which I do not see.
equally expect mean orderly
For the U.S. as a whole, I expect we're going to have an orderly correction. But that doesn't mean it's going to be equally orderly in all places.
continue economic half hold levels likely lower maybe mortgage next pace past period quite rates
If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.
might next shock time
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.