Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
believe demand housing leads likely minimum mortgage recent rise weakness
There's already been a considerable softening in housing demand which preceded the recent rise in mortgage rates. Which leads me to believe that the weakness at a minimum will continue, and may likely accelerate.
continue economic half hold levels likely lower maybe mortgage next pace past period quite rates
If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.
areas conditions labor outside sustained welcome
It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.
context favorable fed gives inevitable inflation latitude past rate recent seen
This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.
abysmal consumer extremely face hurricane october played report role spending taking value weak
Taking it at face value, the hurricane played a big role in contributing to the weakness. Consumer spending was abysmal in October and November. It's an extremely weak report overall.
bubbling concern fed inflation measured path since start year
On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.
economy event good month return seemed serious
This is a return to normalcy, and that is especially good after what seemed like a much more serious event for the economy just a month or two ago.
credit guides industry markets reassuring sending signals useful whatever
The credit markets have been very useful guides to industry prospects. Whatever reassuring signals they are sending shouldn't be ignored.
based beginning early soft
It's early in the game, but based on what we have seen, this is beginning to play out as a soft landing.
admission fed january locks march neutral odds strong
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.
fourth reflecting report sector strong
This is a very strong report overall, reflecting of the manufacturing sector rebounding through the fourth quarter.
economy economy-and-economics effects exclude extremely solid
It's a very solid quarter. The fundamental of the economy is extremely robust, which doesn't exclude the effects of the hurricanes.
consumers continue difficult environment high light oil persevere
Consumers continue to persevere in a difficult environment in light of high oil prices,
although businesses condition correction economic indicate optimistic outlook results slight small stance
Although there was a slight correction in the outlook index, the results still indicate an optimistic stance on the economic condition for small businesses in the Midwest.