Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
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The question today is more opportunistic. The question is exactly where can I be a buyer of America Online ( AOL ) or some of these other stocks that have been weakened?
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You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
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Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
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Tradition drives these international markets very, very hard. The concept is interesting, but inevitably, they will find it as difficult, if not more difficult than Europe.
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We're looking at a 12 percent decline in earnings this year for the S&P 500, and that's the sharpest decline we've had since the last recession. The confidence level that one has in looking at those earnings is very low.
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We have good optimism out there and that's always the time to think about what dark clouds are out there.
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We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
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We've seen a noticeable pickup in concern over the last two months.
reality setting
The reality is setting in on the AOL/Time Warner deal.
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market.
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I think it's more a result of a fear of buyers being left behind.
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I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.