Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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People want to own these (technology) stocks. And that's what limits any significant drop on these stocks and it's what puts pressure on the remainder of the market.
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The question today is more opportunistic. The question is exactly where can I be a buyer of America Online ( AOL ) or some of these other stocks that have been weakened?
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You're getting money flowing back into some of these big stocks and the tone is good. What's powering it is optimism that at some point and time, we're going to get this final turn in earnings -- it's buying with the thought that you don't fight the Fed.
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I think you are near (capitulation) at the moment and you are getting close to the bottom. Technology stocks are driven on the expectation and we're in a period now where expectations are being lowered. What you'll have happen is stocks will react to the fact that expectations are too low.
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The key area to watch is what financial stocks will do. They've been performing well and it's clearly a pattern of higher highs. If they take this (interest rate hike) well, my confidence that we're getting to the end of these Fed hikes will increase.
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And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America.
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Putting it in context, it wasn't a great display of bullishness one would assume.
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Probably in the short term we're a little ahead of ourselves. We don't have any earnings visibility and we won't until the fourth quarter.
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Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
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Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
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You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
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I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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From a trading desk standpoint, you'd rather be long (own stocks) here than short, and that starts to build its own dynamic and attract its own level of interest. The market is oversold and selling pressure is easing.