Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
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This was a good, constructive quarter. The market overcame two problem areas: the Fed raising interest rates and high oil prices.
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We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.
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But I think that the global picture in 1995 was a little bit more murky than it is today. Economy was slower than today. As we look at the world scene it is actually quite good. A lot of foreign economies are expected to grow a little bit faster than the U.S. economy this year. So that is a major difference. And again it probably keeps the Fed from decreasing or cutting interest rates anytime soon.
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The big fundamental for financial markets is the economy and earnings beyond interest rates.
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It's the analogy of the straw and the camel's back. We keep loading the camel's back with straw and higher energy prices and interest rates. It's probably going to be what's good for oil is going to be bad for the rest of the market.
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The question today is more opportunistic. The question is exactly where can I be a buyer of America Online ( AOL ) or some of these other stocks that have been weakened?
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You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
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Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
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Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
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Tradition drives these international markets very, very hard. The concept is interesting, but inevitably, they will find it as difficult, if not more difficult than Europe.
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We're looking at a 12 percent decline in earnings this year for the S&P 500, and that's the sharpest decline we've had since the last recession. The confidence level that one has in looking at those earnings is very low.
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We have good optimism out there and that's always the time to think about what dark clouds are out there.