Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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You've lost your earnings catalyst so we're moving away from the second quarter. With the economy moderating you're looking at earnings estimates that are too high and have to come down.
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You're getting money flowing back into some of these big stocks and the tone is good. What's powering it is optimism that at some point and time, we're going to get this final turn in earnings -- it's buying with the thought that you don't fight the Fed.
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Analysts generally can talk to companies during the first two weeks of the last month of the quarter so what we'll be looking at is the beginning of the earnings pre-announcements or commentary for the third quarter.
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The markets are getting oversold and typically you're at levels where markets that are this oversold can have pretty good rallies. I think investors are cognizant of the fact that things are weak, but they also don't want to miss an incredible rally if one occurs.
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The key area to watch is what financial stocks will do. They've been performing well and it's clearly a pattern of higher highs. If they take this (interest rate hike) well, my confidence that we're getting to the end of these Fed hikes will increase.