Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
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This was a good, constructive quarter. The market overcame two problem areas: the Fed raising interest rates and high oil prices.
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But I think that the global picture in 1995 was a little bit more murky than it is today. Economy was slower than today. As we look at the world scene it is actually quite good. A lot of foreign economies are expected to grow a little bit faster than the U.S. economy this year. So that is a major difference. And again it probably keeps the Fed from decreasing or cutting interest rates anytime soon.
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The key area to watch is what financial stocks will do. They've been performing well and it's clearly a pattern of higher highs. If they take this (interest rate hike) well, my confidence that we're getting to the end of these Fed hikes will increase.
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What this does is it keeps buyers away. It's a lack of buyers. And they would prefer some certainty.
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We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.
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Whenever the market is as oversold as it is right now, it's typically been a good idea to do some buying. The question is what to buy and the lack of a 'go to' area is keeping investors on the sidelines.
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We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
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We've seen a noticeable pickup in concern over the last two months.
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The reality is setting in on the AOL/Time Warner deal.
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I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market.
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I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.
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The big fundamental for financial markets is the economy and earnings beyond interest rates.