Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
almost bullish fed good interest investor last rates shot time using year
I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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We have good optimism out there and that's always the time to think about what dark clouds are out there.
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It's the analogy of the straw and the camel's back. We keep loading the camel's back with straw and higher energy prices and interest rates. It's probably going to be what's good for oil is going to be bad for the rest of the market.
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We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
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Whenever the market is as oversold as it is right now, it's typically been a good idea to do some buying. The question is what to buy and the lack of a 'go to' area is keeping investors on the sidelines.
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Good earning growth. Next year, their earnings will be about $1.90 (per share). That's just 10 times this year's current stock price.
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The markets are getting oversold and typically you're at levels where markets that are this oversold can have pretty good rallies. I think investors are cognizant of the fact that things are weak, but they also don't want to miss an incredible rally if one occurs.
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And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America.
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Putting it in context, it wasn't a great display of bullishness one would assume.
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Probably in the short term we're a little ahead of ourselves. We don't have any earnings visibility and we won't until the fourth quarter.
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Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
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Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
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You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
brave buying opposed trying
I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.