Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
almost bullish fed good interest investor last rates shot time using year
I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
facing higher interest prices rates rising starting stock themselves
We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.
acceptable august coming continuing economy fear fed inflation interest meaning move needs numbers price raise raising rates signs toward
I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
fed high interest market oil overcame problem raising rates
This was a good, constructive quarter. The market overcame two problem areas: the Fed raising interest rates and high oil prices.
again anytime bit cutting economies economy expected faster fed foreign global grow interest keeps major murky picture quite rates scene slower
But I think that the global picture in 1995 was a little bit more murky than it is today. Economy was slower than today. As we look at the world scene it is actually quite good. A lot of foreign economies are expected to grow a little bit faster than the U.S. economy this year. So that is a major difference. And again it probably keeps the Fed from decreasing or cutting interest rates anytime soon.
balance corporate percent sheets strongest yield
And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America.
display great putting
Putting it in context, it wasn't a great display of bullishness one would assume.
ahead earnings fourth short term until visibility
Probably in the short term we're a little ahead of ourselves. We don't have any earnings visibility and we won't until the fourth quarter.
either faster grow stock
Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down.
almost companies cut four half october three year
Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago.
bottom draws half kick market range trading
You get a kick in the market that draws in the buyers. I think we're in a trading range and are getting into the bottom half of that trading range.
brave buying opposed trying
I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.
attract build desk dynamic level market pressure rather selling starts trading
From a trading desk standpoint, you'd rather be long (own stocks) here than short, and that starts to build its own dynamic and attract its own level of interest. The market is oversold and selling pressure is easing.
drop limits people pressure puts stocks
People want to own these (technology) stocks. And that's what limits any significant drop on these stocks and it's what puts pressure on the remainder of the market.