Richard Berner
Richard Berner
either higher move rates remarks timing year
Greenspan's remarks will be significant, either because of what he does say or what he doesn't say, ... They will move rates higher this year but the timing of that may have changed.
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
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I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
believe contain fed further future inflation move
We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.
bust contribute courtesy crash home past reduced values wave
I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown. Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.