Richard Berner
Richard Berner
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown. Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown, ... Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
balance fed funds likely move rate reaches risks sidelines until
The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
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The Fed truly wants to get inflation somewhat higher -- back into the comfort zone. Why not say where that comfort zone is?
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
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The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.
ensure fed inflation move perhaps promptly require risks stay upside
Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.
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Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
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Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
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There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
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The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.