Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
again although caution early happen inflation interest next rates until view
This underpins our view that interest rates will have to come down again although the MPC caution on inflation suggests that's not going to happen until early next year.
above cut economy grow interest rates reluctant signs
If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
august bag consistent easing economic mixed news rates remaining since
Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.
confidence consumer data followed later looking states toward
Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.
although bit fall inflation month next numbers picking signs time wage
The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.
christmas drawing early full high picture street time trading year
It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.
agile happening might minds people tend
That might be happening more efficiently in the most intelligent children. People with very agile minds tend to have a very agile cortex.
corporate nervous seen trading worst
We will see nervous trading ahead, as we have seen from Cisco that the worst is not yet over for corporate earnings.
account taking
This was extraordinarily weak, even taking into account the seasonal unreliability of the data.
areas certain children key later peak reached relatively several thin thinner
And we find the most intelligent children started off with a relatively thin cortex, but it then got thicker relatively rapidly, reached its peak thickness in certain key areas several years later but then also got thinner quicker.
believe differ expect high hold majority members official peter rates recent remain run spending street stronger
While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.
found pattern
We found that the cortex showed a different pattern of development.