Ned Riley
Ned Riley
almost placed scary starting technology until utopia
It did not make me feel very comfortable because of the valuations that were starting to be placed on these technology stocks. They were almost discounting utopia until the end of this century, and that really is a scary scenario.
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Until we get to that point where investors truly feel that there is no floor to stock prices, that isn't the full capitulation. There's still an unusual amount of optimism.
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Unfortunately, the market has taken a 'shoot now, analyze later' attitude. These companies are guilty until proven innocent, and they need to come up with confessions or disclosures that prove there's nothing questionable.
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I think you're going to continue to see this until we get through this whole period where there are these expectations that are clearly different than what reality is going to produce next year. Microsoft is only another example.
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I think the Fed has at least one further tightening in June and another one in August. Until the American consumer changes his or her outlook on further income growth, the economy is going to remain vibrant and inflation will continue to rise.
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I think we're in a situation where until the storm's damage can really be assessed, which could be weeks, stocks are going to stay under pressure.
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The Fed is still maintaining its supportive stance. They are not going to raise rates until the economy begins to generate more jobs.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
recovery road rocky
The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.