Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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People have been using a rotational strategy -- but eventually you'll have a peaceful coexistence between the two because the 'old economy' stocks will have very good relative earnings that people can attach to,
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Fundamentally, I think that many of the reports, from companies like Intel, Apple and IBM do portray a relatively sound tech environment. But people are anxious right now generally.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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I like Merck, in particular, because here's a stock that's retreated dramatically from its high, but still has its earnings growth-rate intact, ... This company, I think, can grow about 13 to 15 percent. And its price-to-earnings ratio now is getting down to a level that I think is very reasonable relative to its long-term growth rate.
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It's funny to watch the evolution of an index that was relatively unknown for its first 15 years. If you really want to expose your portfolio to leading-edge technology companies, the Nasdaq has the bulk of those stocks.
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There has been a dearth of negative news, which to the market has to be a sign of good news.
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We're nearing an inflection point. I think the market will start to work higher as investors become more comfortable with higher oil prices -- particularly if oil can fall below $50 -- and after the presidential election.
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We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.
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What really happened today is the retail sales report set the right tone, ... It appears that consumer spending is down.
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You had to be in tech to win in this period.
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Be prepared for a continuation of negative commentary by companies as they warn about the second quarter.
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Today we're in the bottom- fishing mode and there are a lot of people who think the tech correction is complete and we've established our lows for this cycle.
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What unnerved the market the most and will continue to keep moving it was Greenspan's comments about the treasury market, ... The comments basically took a lot of financial stocks off guard, all the banks and brokers. That paired with PPI created a bit of a panic.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.