Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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I like Merck, in particular, because here's a stock that's retreated dramatically from its high, but still has its earnings growth-rate intact, ... This company, I think, can grow about 13 to 15 percent. And its price-to-earnings ratio now is getting down to a level that I think is very reasonable relative to its long-term growth rate.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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It's funny to watch the evolution of an index that was relatively unknown for its first 15 years. If you really want to expose your portfolio to leading-edge technology companies, the Nasdaq has the bulk of those stocks.
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People have been using a rotational strategy -- but eventually you'll have a peaceful coexistence between the two because the 'old economy' stocks will have very good relative earnings that people can attach to,
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Fundamentally, I think that many of the reports, from companies like Intel, Apple and IBM do portray a relatively sound tech environment. But people are anxious right now generally.
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I'm reluctant to revisit things like talk of the 'Goldilocks economy,' but what I think you did see the market react to is Greenspan outlining an environment that is balanced, but with a fairly strong upward bias,
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It's something of an uplifting experience for us in the investing community to see that companies really are taking their accounting seriously. An exercise that CEOs seemed to treat as rote and automatic is viewed totally differently.
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EBay was given no mercy after hours. Followers were very dismayed by the guidance and that clearly was no help for the rest of technology.
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Everybody knows the second quarter is going to be miserable but there's a sliver of optimism on the part of investors that would hope that the commentary would be geared toward a better scenario.
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The big news is clearly the payroll report.
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The bad news could actually be fully discounted in the stocks themselves,
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The retail sales number today reinforces the notion that the consumer hasn't fallen apart. Today's market is encouraging from the perspective that there is less of an Enron hangover.
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This is a very critical period for the economy. The leadership is where it should be, with technology moving forward. I think we're in a turning point. That's what the market is sending a message about.
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This is clearly a holiday-impacted trading day, as volume indicates. I do think the market is acting extremely well. The Christmas rally that people eagerly awaited is here, but it's taking on something of a more subtle tone.