Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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the ten-year Treasury note yield is again moving higher and the price of oil is hitting up against record highs, all of which create obstacles for higher stock prices.
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I think the story is going to be the same going forward. We're going to see the tech companies reporting well. But the high interest rates we've seen so far have undermined some of the financial stocks and drug stocks.
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Right now I think you're in the indiscriminate phase of selling. There's more of (a feeling of) anticipation and paranoia about the possibility that some of the Dow stocks could disappoint even further.
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What unnerved the market the most and will continue to keep moving it was Greenspan's comments about the treasury market, ... The comments basically took a lot of financial stocks off guard, all the banks and brokers. That paired with PPI created a bit of a panic.
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The bad news could actually be fully discounted in the stocks themselves,
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It's a conviction on the part of some that a lot of the stocks have reached such a downside level that they are discounting the worst of all scenarios. The enthusiasm is clearly restrained because the selling and anxiety continues so we've got a little short covering and selective buying.
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Whether the catalyst was the cessation of tax selling or just a rally from a truly depressed area, the Nasdaq is attracting some bargain hunting. I would suggest stocks were over discounting shorter-term problems that have already been announced.
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Until we get to that point where investors truly feel that there is no floor to stock prices, that isn't the full capitulation. There's still an unusual amount of optimism.
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We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down.
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A lot of these stocks were much higher a year ago than they are today. Clearly, the bottom-fishing issue is important and real.
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As we start the new year, we could see tech get a slight boost, but then I think investors will turn to consumer stocks as the economy continues to recover.
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This is an opportunity, ... You can find some health care stocks with price- earnings ratios, ironically, more cheap than they are in the cyclical area. The health care group of stocks that I like sell about 28 times earnings and have growth rates of 14 percent.
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I think the bond market has already discounted a favorable report but not a negative report, ... If we see something less than 150,000, bonds will rally and stocks may, too.