Ned Riley
Ned Riley
buy company cyclical earnings high level looking might next opportunity percent selling several trying visibility
We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.
certainty front level point quarter technology third turning waiting
I think they're waiting for Cisco, but they're also injecting their own level of certainty about the third quarter as being the turning point for the front end of technology stocks,
action bit bring insurance investors leaves levels others quick reflects role somebody sour stocks taken taste
We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down.
earnings grow growth level ratio reasonable relative stock
I like Merck, in particular, because here's a stock that's retreated dramatically from its high, but still has its earnings growth-rate intact, ... This company, I think, can grow about 13 to 15 percent. And its price-to-earnings ratio now is getting down to a level that I think is very reasonable relative to its long-term growth rate.
awakening corrected emotional eventually excesses fortunes investor irrational last level market notion perception quick ran reach reality reinforce street sudden thinking total wall year
It was a year of awakening for the new investor on Wall Street and it was a very quick and sudden reversal of fortunes for many. We ran the emotional gamut from total irrational thinking and perception to reality and capitulation. Last year's market did reinforce the notion that abuses and excesses are eventually corrected and eventually reach a level of overreaction -- and that's how the year ended.
anxiety clearly continues conviction covering downside enthusiasm level reached restrained selective selling short stocks worst
It's a conviction on the part of some that a lot of the stocks have reached such a downside level that they are discounting the worst of all scenarios. The enthusiasm is clearly restrained because the selling and anxiety continues so we've got a little short covering and selective buying.
cautious companies decent expectation extremely giving level lower public skepticism
There's skepticism out there. Companies are extremely cautious about giving a decent outlook. They've set a much lower level of expectation for the public and the analysts out there.
dearth good market negative news sign
There has been a dearth of negative news, which to the market has to be a sign of good news.
below fall higher investors market oil prices start work
We're nearing an inflection point. I think the market will start to work higher as investors become more comfortable with higher oil prices -- particularly if oil can fall below $50 -- and after the presidential election.
beginning demand earnings economy loan looking next people picked test
We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.
appears consumer happened report retail sales spending today
What really happened today is the retail sales report set the right tone, ... It appears that consumer spending is down.
tech win
You had to be in tech to win in this period.
commentary companies negative prepared second warn
Be prepared for a continuation of negative commentary by companies as they warn about the second quarter.
complete correction fishing lows mode people tech today
Today we're in the bottom- fishing mode and there are a lot of people who think the tech correction is complete and we've established our lows for this cycle.