Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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But after all the corporate governance issues, there's a tendency now of erring on the side of ultra-conservatism in terms of what companies say about future quarters and that's going to continue.
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Everybody knows the second quarter is going to be miserable but there's a sliver of optimism on the part of investors that would hope that the commentary would be geared toward a better scenario.
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The profits numbers will be mostly dismissed in the first quarter as a casualty of war. Now we'll see how much momentum we can pick up from the reverse of war negativity.
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We're at the end of the quarter and people are consolidating a little bit. April could look better if we can see some tech names assert leadership.
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This is sort-of the real dead period for the quarter and it's also the summer, and a lot of people are on vacation,
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I think by the first quarter of next year you're going to see a much better profits picture and that's what the market's telling us here.
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I think they're waiting for Cisco, but they're also injecting their own level of certainty about the third quarter as being the turning point for the front end of technology stocks,
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.