Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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This is a very critical period for the economy. The leadership is where it should be, with technology moving forward. I think we're in a turning point. That's what the market is sending a message about.
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Technology needs to be the leader on the way up, because it was the leader on the way down. Even though the earnings reports are miserable, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. That's what investors are looking at right now.
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Some of the negativity is lessening, but we've got to take small steps before we run as far as this type of investor is concerned. The retail investor is not usually the leader of the pack. This is not a group that's going to be waving the green flag in front of the bull and saying 'Let's go!'.
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I do think he's trying to pull a leadership role here a little more than being the economist, and that leadership is trying to get people upbeat.
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The fundamentals are clearly what investors continue to fall back on for their leadership and that leadership seems to be resting with the 'old economy' and the Dow.
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I like Merck, in particular, because here's a stock that's retreated dramatically from its high, but still has its earnings growth-rate intact, ... This company, I think, can grow about 13 to 15 percent. And its price-to-earnings ratio now is getting down to a level that I think is very reasonable relative to its long-term growth rate.
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I'm reluctant to revisit things like talk of the 'Goldilocks economy,' but what I think you did see the market react to is Greenspan outlining an environment that is balanced, but with a fairly strong upward bias,
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It's something of an uplifting experience for us in the investing community to see that companies really are taking their accounting seriously. An exercise that CEOs seemed to treat as rote and automatic is viewed totally differently.
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EBay was given no mercy after hours. Followers were very dismayed by the guidance and that clearly was no help for the rest of technology.
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Everybody knows the second quarter is going to be miserable but there's a sliver of optimism on the part of investors that would hope that the commentary would be geared toward a better scenario.
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The big news is clearly the payroll report.
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The bad news could actually be fully discounted in the stocks themselves,
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The retail sales number today reinforces the notion that the consumer hasn't fallen apart. Today's market is encouraging from the perspective that there is less of an Enron hangover.
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This is clearly a holiday-impacted trading day, as volume indicates. I do think the market is acting extremely well. The Christmas rally that people eagerly awaited is here, but it's taking on something of a more subtle tone.