Ned Riley

Ned Riley
earnings investors leader light looking needs reports technology though
Technology needs to be the leader on the way up, because it was the leader on the way down. Even though the earnings reports are miserable, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. That's what investors are looking at right now.
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Money funds are still grabbing about 50 percent of share of the money that's coming into mutual funds, ... So I think investors are a little bit guardedly optimistic, but still a little concerned about the outlook in terms of the volatility and the economy, probably.
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We're nearing an inflection point. I think the market will start to work higher as investors become more comfortable with higher oil prices -- particularly if oil can fall below $50 -- and after the presidential election.
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Everybody knows the second quarter is going to be miserable but there's a sliver of optimism on the part of investors that would hope that the commentary would be geared toward a better scenario.
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It was a year of awakening for the new investor on Wall Street and it was a very quick and sudden reversal of fortunes for many. We ran the emotional gamut from total irrational thinking and perception to reality and capitulation. Last year's market did reinforce the notion that abuses and excesses are eventually corrected and eventually reach a level of overreaction -- and that's how the year ended.
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There is a willingness on the part of investors to buy premium names in anticipation of a recovery, but I really think there isn't a lot of conviction on the part of buyers or sellers.
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Until we get to that point where investors truly feel that there is no floor to stock prices, that isn't the full capitulation. There's still an unusual amount of optimism.
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Unfortunately, ... we've got two types of investors right now in this market. We have got this new investor, the new breed that's brash, bold, aggressive, and very short-term oriented, who has not been through a real bear market.
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We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down.
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As we start the new year, we could see tech get a slight boost, but then I think investors will turn to consumer stocks as the economy continues to recover.
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The report will give investors some feeling in terms of wage trends, and inflation,
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I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.
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The rally in the first two weeks of January was based on expectations that we would have a decent reporting period. Largely, that's been true, with many earnings reports meeting or topping estimates. But unfortunately, the commentary about the future has been a huge downer. That's one of the things holding investors back now.
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Some of the negativity is lessening, but we've got to take small steps before we run as far as this type of investor is concerned. The retail investor is not usually the leader of the pack. This is not a group that's going to be waving the green flag in front of the bull and saying 'Let's go!'.