Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
account bush capable current cutting decline deficit destined unless
Unless the Bush administration is capable of cutting the current account deficit in half, the dollar's decline is destined to continue.
believe curve people recession signal wrong yield
The people who believe that the inversion of the yield curve is a signal of recession have it wrong this time.
added buy dollar dollars gasoline market order report
This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls. The market was predisposed to buy dollars and the report added gasoline to the fire.
dollar order report
This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls.
change consistent data fed
Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.
caught data heavy market players week wrong
Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S..
asian bonds conscious demand dollar greatest market policy remains soon threat time unlikely whereas
Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.
bank changing close fiscal japan march monetary movements policy year
The Bank of Japan is not going to be changing its monetary policy before the fiscal year end on March 31. As corporations close down their books, they don't want any pronounced movements in the dollar-yen rate.
ability deficit given indication market rally strong strongly trade
The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
ability deficit given indication market rally strongly trade
The U.S. dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
consumers dollar economy heading keeping next spending strength
Consumers are out there spending and keeping the economy alive. We see dollar strength heading into next year.
above argue conditions dollar federal funds growth later rate strong target tight viewed
Strong growth and tight labor-market conditions argue for preemptive tightening that could very well take the federal funds target rate above 5% later this year. This is viewed as a dollar positive.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.