Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
against backdrop behind below canadian commodity dollar economic fact inflation lower market rallying rates
But against the backdrop of improvements in commodity prices, the fact the Canadian dollar has been rallying and the long end of the market had already priced it in, they thought, 'Listen, our rates should be below U.S. rates. Our inflation is lower and we're well behind in the economic cycle.'
economy economy-and-economics fast fed growing inflation present question slack threat
The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
attention fed inflation paying problem
Inflation is not a problem right now; that is not really what the Fed is paying attention to.
associated decent equity fact generally good inflation pressure remains wage
The fact that we've had some decent growth, as long as it isn't associated with inflation risk, is generally good for equity markets. But we did see that wage pressure remains elevated. From that perspective, (the report) is neutral.
appear crises far fed global ground inflation offset worry
As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road. For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about.
capacity commodity inflation pose prices quiet
All is not quiet on the inflation front. Commodity prices and capacity constraints still pose some inflation risks.
broader continues housing sector surprise view
This surprise rise in no way alters the broader view that the housing sector continues to cool.
business demand fed foreign game half likely picking solid
With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.
economic exports further global growth pickup support
Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.
activity factory likely remains slightly
Factory activity likely cooled slightly in December, but remains robust.
business consumer continuing foreign march momentum pick solid spending
There is a lot of momentum in this economy. Consumer spending is continuing to march along, business spending is solid and you have a pick up in foreign demand.
among badly burnt data decline economic europe eventually investors quite rate robust talk tougher
Much of the decline is disappointment among investors who were burnt quite badly in 1999 where they thought things had bottomed. You'll have to see some tougher talk from the ECB, more robust economic data from Europe and eventually a rate hike.
along consumer ebb equity fed growth keys mortgage prices pull spending
Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.
fires last praying smoke word
Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).