Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
broader continues housing sector surprise view
This surprise rise in no way alters the broader view that the housing sector continues to cool.
consumer continues creeping despite energy fact gains housing job offset potential prices providing remain spending suggest
Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.
consumer gas higher housing matter third though time
It's only a matter of time though before the consumer succumbs to weakening housing and higher gas prices, and I think we'll see that by the third quarter.
consumers energy growth high housing job medical pension sector solid uncertain vulnerable
Consumers may be wobbly, owing to high energy prices, a vulnerable housing sector and increasingly uncertain medical and pension benefits, but there is nothing like the whiff of solid job growth to keep them on their feet.
confidence consumer economy fed finished housing labor market momentum people record risk seeing strong super
Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.
business demand fed foreign game half likely picking solid
With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.
economic exports further global growth pickup support
Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.
activity factory likely remains slightly
Factory activity likely cooled slightly in December, but remains robust.
business consumer continuing foreign march momentum pick solid spending
There is a lot of momentum in this economy. Consumer spending is continuing to march along, business spending is solid and you have a pick up in foreign demand.
among badly burnt data decline economic europe eventually investors quite rate robust talk tougher
Much of the decline is disappointment among investors who were burnt quite badly in 1999 where they thought things had bottomed. You'll have to see some tougher talk from the ECB, more robust economic data from Europe and eventually a rate hike.
against backdrop behind below canadian commodity dollar economic fact inflation lower market rallying rates
But against the backdrop of improvements in commodity prices, the fact the Canadian dollar has been rallying and the long end of the market had already priced it in, they thought, 'Listen, our rates should be below U.S. rates. Our inflation is lower and we're well behind in the economic cycle.'
along consumer ebb equity fed growth keys mortgage prices pull spending
Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.
fires last praying smoke word
Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).
affected bubble lower period rate
I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.