Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
consumer gas higher housing matter third though time
It's only a matter of time though before the consumer succumbs to weakening housing and higher gas prices, and I think we'll see that by the third quarter.
consumers energy growth high housing job medical pension sector solid uncertain vulnerable
Consumers may be wobbly, owing to high energy prices, a vulnerable housing sector and increasingly uncertain medical and pension benefits, but there is nothing like the whiff of solid job growth to keep them on their feet.
dollar falling markets news people prevent somebody
The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.
appears bank conducive helping japan step taking towards trying
The Bank of Japan is taking a little step towards trying some remedies, ... now appears to be more conducive to helping them.
broaden consumers discount gas high impact mainstream prices seeing signs starting stay
We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.
base caution economy economy-and-economics err exactly fed high question remember seeing side signs starting
There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.
economy economy-and-economics fast fed growing inflation present question slack threat
The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
fed further moved odds past pricing several weeks
Over the past several weeks we've moved from pricing in one further move by the Fed to odds favoring two moves.
clearly federal interest raise reserve risk surprise
There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
consumer continues creeping despite energy fact gains housing job offset potential prices providing remain spending suggest
Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.
appear crises far fed global ground inflation offset worry
As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road. For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about.
affected bubble lower period rate
I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.
infatuated people using
People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,
demand domestic economy economy-and-economics exceed fourth growth looking remains spending stock underlying
Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.