Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
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The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.
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It's not so much GM, but it could have been one of the proverbial straws that broke consumers' backs. All of a sudden people have to pay more for energy, debt service, healthcare, and save more for retirement.
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Consumers may be wobbly, owing to high energy prices, a vulnerable housing sector and increasingly uncertain medical and pension benefits, but there is nothing like the whiff of solid job growth to keep them on their feet.
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There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
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There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.
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There's little doubt out there that Greenspan will move this time around and try to put the brakes on growth a bit. The question is whether this is a one-time deal or a continuation of a series of moves meant to really keep the economy in line.
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The trend is improving in manufacturing as businesses pick up the pace of spending on equipment, so we're looking for continued expansion in the factory sector.
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Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.
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I'd thought they wouldn't want to sort of venture there again, given that all is not perfect on the commodity price front,
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The construction sector continues to be a contributor to Canadian economic growth, which should make the Bank of Canada feel a bit more comfortable about any forthcoming rate hikes.
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all the pieces of evidence, all the statements that have been reviewed, all the witnesses that have been spoken to.
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The market is concerned about not if, but how much over the course of the year the Fed will move. There's been a lot of discussion about more than one rate increase, which is what's concerning the markets.
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The dollar-yen relationship is still the forefront issue in most people's minds. There's a fear for both stocks and bonds that if the depreciation continues there will be less appeal for U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
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All is not quiet on the inflation front. Commodity prices and capacity constraints still pose some inflation risks.