Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
across loans markets
Most of the loans are concentrated in the most juiced-up markets across the country.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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This is going to keep energy markets on a razor's edge for the rest of the year,
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if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
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Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
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The Fed chair doesn't matter a lot to the average person in normal times. He matters an awful lot when things aren't going well -- when the financial markets freeze, or there's a 9/11 or Y2K or Iraq war. When people lose confidence, the Fed chairman is vital to restoring confidence and ensuring functioning financial markets and economy.
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A month ago the markets would have interpreted getting rid of measured as meaning that a 50 basis point hike was possible. Now the market won't know if it would mean no change, another quarter-point move, or a 50 point hike is next and that's precisely why the Fed should take it out,
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.