Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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It's better than it was but it's not as good as anywhere else. There are growing pockets of strength. Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis -- these are economies that had been severely depressed a few years ago and are now making their way back.
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The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
change data export fed growth laid pressure script takes wage
There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out, ... Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.