Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
guts statement
It's the same meat, but with a different gravy, ... The real guts of the Fed's statement is very much unchanged.
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People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.
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I don't see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We'll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.
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The underlying state of the economy is on weak footing, and we're going to need further stimulus to keep the recovery on track.
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We're getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren't taking on large amounts of risk.
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U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
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We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy. The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
alert conclude evidence fed seeing slow wait
We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy, ... The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
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We're seeing Japan aggressively acting to keep the yen steady against the dollar and stop the process of broad dollar weakness from turning into broad yen strength.
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We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
asked hospital manager orders palm purchasing somebody
Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.