Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
aggressive core gave inflation markets measure might modest point preferred pricing upside
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
aggressive core gave inflation markets measure might modest point preferred pricing upside
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
claims combined data dollar focus modest morning trade
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
dollar downward growth markets modestly negative retail revision sales weaker
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
consumer factors fatigue goodness report severe special
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
bounce chance cyclical expect
This really reduces the chance of a cyclical bounce in spending, which is what we typically expect to see in a recovery.
fed minutes puts spotlight
This really puts the spotlight very acutely on the Fed minutes this afternoon.
becomes deficit dependent dollar expensive foreign imports reliance shows trade vicious
This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.
elsewhere fed impact interest issue people question rates smart
This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.
businesses circular confidence consumers effect hiring lay lose nervous people production stop
There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.
change data hikes inflation policy pricing radar rate screen time
We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
forward global momentum
Without the U.S., there's not much forward momentum in the global economy.
coming consumer employment numbers phenomenal resilience swayed
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.
business consumer equipment increases output positive solid
This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.