Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
aggressive core gave inflation markets measure might modest point preferred pricing upside
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
aggressive core gave inflation markets measure might modest point preferred pricing upside
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
april bad downside everybody geared markets month retail surprise toward
If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May.
higher housing last market rates situation worried
If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
accepting buy carry changed compared dollar economy either fact fed high markets raising rates resistance rest strong stubborn
When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market's very stubborn resistance to accepting the fact that the dollar has a pretty high carry compared to the rest of the world.
actual continues domestic drawing economics economy-and-economics everybody fed final forecast hard learn market minus rate solid
Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
ask far last markets performed recovery seeing stocks three worse
Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries, ... You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
data economic european impact large markets phase scenario solid taking traders widely
We're getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren't taking on large amounts of risk.
almost markets news people positive reaction reforms
Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.
apply china clearly emerging market rest singled
They have clearly started to apply more pressure. They have singled out China and the rest of the emerging market economies.
add bias ease effort fed growing growth markets move policy rate somewhere sustain ways within
There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.
anywhere confirmed excited guess markets month number seem turnaround
A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I'm not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be. I would like to see this confirmed in another month of data.