Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries, ... You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.
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The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
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That's one of the reasons the dollar came off at the end of last week, ... and could come off even more on Wednesday, when Greenspan speaks. He could be setting the foundation for a more range-bound trade for this coming quarter.
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If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
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The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
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We're getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren't taking on large amounts of risk.
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U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
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We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy. The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
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We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy, ... The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
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We're seeing Japan aggressively acting to keep the yen steady against the dollar and stop the process of broad dollar weakness from turning into broad yen strength.
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We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?