Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
businesses coming confidence lead level stocks throws
Stocks usually lead us out of a recession, but not this time. That throws in a whole new level of uncertainty about how businesses are going to behave. We don't know if there will be enough business confidence without stocks coming back.
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The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
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This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.
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There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.
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Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we're still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects.
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We're getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren't taking on large amounts of risk.
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U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
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We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy. The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
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We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy, ... The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
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We're seeing Japan aggressively acting to keep the yen steady against the dollar and stop the process of broad dollar weakness from turning into broad yen strength.
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We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.