Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
certainly data economy looks shape
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
certainly consider creation economic expect fed job level reflect report stage step taking towards
The report is certainly better than in December, but it just doesn't reflect the level of job creation we'd expect to see at this stage of the economic recovery, or the job creation the Fed would need to see to even consider taking that first step towards tightening.
actual certainly clearly consumer equivalent number outlook output people remains seen translate understand
A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.
certainly create data domestic employment growth notion reinforce
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.
benign energy inflation looking outside
Inflation is looking more benign outside of the energy sector.
dollar euro everybody remain result spinning strength strong trends
Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, ... The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.
best buy currency everybody fund high knows seems sell
Everybody knows they (investors) want to buy high yielding currencies and the yen still seems like the best currency to sell to fund that.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.
businesses coming confidence lead level stocks throws
Stocks usually lead us out of a recession, but not this time. That throws in a whole new level of uncertainty about how businesses are going to behave. We don't know if there will be enough business confidence without stocks coming back.
ask far last markets performed recovery seeing stocks three worse
Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries, ... You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.
evidence labor process recovery sector
There still is evidence that the most important sector of the economy, the labor market, is still only in the process of stabilizing. It's not in full-fledged recovery yet.
dollar downward growth markets modestly negative retail revision sales weaker
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
ahead beast consumer exuberance fed growth letting terms
The 'new economy' was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and '98.
capital fed fine markets situations stop
The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They're functioning just fine -- they're just really negative.