Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
activity declining evidence great housing levels mortgage rates
With mortgage rates still low, there is no evidence yet that levels of housing activity are declining to any great extent.
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With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
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It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
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They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,
ahead buyers buying data last low maintained mortgage pace perceived plenty rate rates sales speculate strength
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?
fed feeling improving labor march market months numbers people raise rates several start strong until wait
The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
economic federal finally interest labor last market maybe next number people piece raise rates reserve
If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
change comments issues knows low raise rates remain
I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy. Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?
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The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
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Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
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February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
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Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
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Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.