Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.
basis knew market stock virtually
It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,
clean few labor market moment months national numbers
The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.
fed feeling improving labor march market months numbers people raise rates several start strong until wait
The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
economic federal finally interest labor last market maybe next number people piece raise rates reserve
If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
demand domestic economic economies exports good growth inventory reasonably rebuilding strength strong tied
The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
economy exports growing nice rising
Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
attuned cause continue federal help highly inflation level officials producer reserve side situation tilt
Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
great imports picking trend
The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.