Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
clear data december knowing next possibly raising rates
They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,
amazing data effect fairly given september
This is actually fairly amazing given all the uncertainty engendered by the effect of the hurricanes on September data that has yet to be reported.
ahead buyers buying data last low maintained mortgage pace perceived plenty rate rates sales speculate strength
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?
close coming data eye fed keeping wage
The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.
combined consumer data entered fact july means personal point retail sales
Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.
demand domestic economic economies exports good growth inventory reasonably rebuilding strength strong tied
The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
economy exports growing nice rising
Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
attuned cause continue federal help highly inflation level officials producer reserve side situation tilt
Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
great imports picking trend
The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.