Josh Stiles
Josh Stiles
building inflation pressures problem
We still need to keep the inflation pressures from building or there will be a problem in the future.
economy focus grow inflation keeping main maybe reason shifted strength
Strength in productivity is one main reason (that is) keeping inflation low, ... It has shifted the focus back to the economy - maybe the economy can grow at such strength without inflation.
cyclical excessive focused forces happening inflation structural wrong
He's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years. He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation.
buy few headline higher inflation next oil rise toward
I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.
basis currency data fed gaining inflation market maybe meaning morning move november pause points pressures price raises rates september
The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.
bond hurt market
is going to hurt the bond market more.
basis market point rate view
The view is that the market could withstand a 25 basis point rate hike.
feels slide
It feels like the slide is tapering off,
aggressive cast doubt economy economy-and-economics fed morning seeing
It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,
commodity concerned damage economy energy fed higher interested members prices risks terms
I would be interested in what those Fed members who are concerned about longer-term risks to the economy say in terms of any damage from higher energy prices and commodity prices.
business conditions headline impact moderation offset prices saw
We saw moderation in the indices on prices paid, employment, and six-month business conditions outlook. That offset the impact of the headline number.
bond hurt number
We don't look at this number and say it's the end of manufacturing strength. Still, it hasn't hurt the bond market.
consumer gain market sentiment taking
Consumer sentiment made an extraordinary month-to-month gain and really sparked the selling. The market has come a long way and short-term speculators are taking some profits.
classic definitely dilemma hurricane number paid prices related
The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in. But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher.