Josh Stiles
Josh Stiles
consumer good january quarter retail
We should still have a pretty good quarter for consumer spending. January retail sales, excluding autos, were very strong.
attack caution middle might range surprise weeks whether yield
We don't know enough about him to know whether there might be a surprise attack so there is some caution. But overall, the 10-year yield has been in a range of 4 5/8 to 4 /12 for weeks and today, we're right in the middle of that range.
action due endorse forces labor looked lower people question report supply weaker whether yield
A lot of Friday's action was due to short-covering after the labor report looked weaker than people had expected. But the upcoming supply forces people to question whether they really want to endorse these lower yield levels.
bond concern eye market stock traders
There's concern for how the stock market has done recently. I do think bond traders have their eye on the stock market.
agencies bottom credit good highest line looking maintain
The bottom line is, agencies will maintain their highest credit rating. Agencies are looking like pretty good value.
economy focus grow inflation keeping main maybe reason shifted strength
Strength in productivity is one main reason (that is) keeping inflation low, ... It has shifted the focus back to the economy - maybe the economy can grow at such strength without inflation.
deal difficult market number
This is always a difficult number for the market to deal with.
cooling economy market pressures wage
I think (the GDP and ECI figures) will tell the market that the economy is not cooling much and that wage pressures are building.
bond commodity demand domestic labor market plenty strength tight worried
I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market; such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.
cyclical excessive focused forces happening inflation structural wrong
He's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years. He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation.
bonds cuts dollar higher permanent tax
He didn't say enough on the permanent tax cuts and that's why the dollar is higher and (U.S.) bonds are higher.
found market needs top
In a short-term perspective, the market has found a top and needs to consolidate.
built currently cushion market prices recovery stronger turns
If the recovery turns out to be even stronger than the market currently thinks, then we'll see some more selling, but we have some cushion (for recovery) built into prices now.
buy few headline higher inflation next oil rise toward
I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.