Josh Stiles
Josh Stiles
asking buy later people supply week whether
We're getting all this new supply later in the week and people are asking whether they really want to buy it at these levels.
buy few headline higher inflation next oil rise toward
I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.
business conditions headline impact moderation offset prices saw
We saw moderation in the indices on prices paid, employment, and six-month business conditions outlook. That offset the impact of the headline number.
bond hurt number
We don't look at this number and say it's the end of manufacturing strength. Still, it hasn't hurt the bond market.
commodity concerned damage economy energy fed higher interested members prices risks terms
I would be interested in what those Fed members who are concerned about longer-term risks to the economy say in terms of any damage from higher energy prices and commodity prices.
bring data fears greenspan lay strong
There are fears the data will be strong and Greenspan will lay the groundwork for tightening. In that environment, how do you bring in buyers?
feels slide
It feels like the slide is tapering off,
aggressive cast doubt economy economy-and-economics fed morning seeing
It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,
cooling economy market pressures wage
I think (the GDP and ECI figures) will tell the market that the economy is not cooling much and that wage pressures are building.
bond commodity demand domestic labor market plenty strength tight worried
I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market; such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.
cyclical excessive focused forces happening inflation structural wrong
He's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years. He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation.
bonds cuts dollar higher permanent tax
He didn't say enough on the permanent tax cuts and that's why the dollar is higher and (U.S.) bonds are higher.
building inflation pressures problem
We still need to keep the inflation pressures from building or there will be a problem in the future.
attack caution middle might range surprise weeks whether yield
We don't know enough about him to know whether there might be a surprise attack so there is some caution. But overall, the 10-year yield has been in a range of 4 5/8 to 4 /12 for weeks and today, we're right in the middle of that range.