Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
case election hit perception reasonable scenario seen surprising worst
It's not surprising we have seen a sizeable hit in the euro. There was a reasonable perception it would be a close-run election and everybody's worst case scenario has come to pass,
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
case dollar economic few good momentum past run seen weeks
We've seen a very good run in the dollar but it's been the case in the past few weeks that it hasn't been able to make much momentum on the back of what's been pretty good economic data,
asian countries expecting forceful given japan market rest statement strong stronger tolerate
The statement was a lot more forceful than the market was expecting and that has given Asian currencies a strong boost. Japan is going to have to tolerate a stronger currency, like the rest of the countries in the region.
downside euro reason riots scope sell
There's scope for the euro on the downside especially if the riots continue. It's another reason to sell the euro.
beg bit broken further levels move obviously overdone question reasonably technical whether
I think probably yesterday's move was a little bit overdone but obviously we've broken through some reasonably sizeable technical levels and that does beg the question as to whether there is a bit further to run.
activity backdrop data economic fairly likely lower prove rates recent remains risk suggesting supportive time
M&A activity is likely to prove supportive for sterling and with recent economic data suggesting there is no risk of lower rates any time soon, I think the backdrop remains fairly constructive.
activity continuing floor influence key months provide recent weeks
M&A activity has been a key influence on sterling over the recent weeks and months ... and if that's going to be a continuing theme, then that will at least provide a floor for sterling.
coming continue data higher positive rates strong talk
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background.
case chase election people performed reluctant since
Since the election was called the yen has performed pretty well and it may well be the case that people are reluctant to chase it higher.
confidence consumer helps housing market supportive
Confidence in the housing market helps consumer spending. That'll be supportive for sterling and it's not going to play too well with the shorter end of the gilt curve.
korea likely news north positive
The North Korea news is also likely to be positive for the dollar.
background coming deflation durable economic investors large looks move positive recovery seeing
It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday. The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon.
again ahead dollar economy fact fed firmly focused further keeps market widening yield
The U.S. economy is still powering ahead and that keeps the market firmly focused on the fact that the Fed has further to go. With yield spreads widening out again the dollar can keep rallying.