Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
current growing peak percent perception
There's a growing perception that 4.5 percent is not going to be the peak in the current cycle.
confidence consumer helps housing market supportive
Confidence in the housing market helps consumer spending. That'll be supportive for sterling and it's not going to play too well with the shorter end of the gilt curve.
korea likely news north positive
The North Korea news is also likely to be positive for the dollar.
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates. I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates, ... I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
continues dollar favor fed highly hikes japanese rates short time view yield zero
We're still going to get Japanese rates at zero for some time yet. The Fed continues to underpin the view that more rate hikes are highly probable, and yield premiums favor the dollar in the short term.
cable continue fed half hike lower might recovery second year
Cable (sterling/dollar) could go lower in the first half of the year as we think the Fed will continue to hike rates, but in the second half we might see a recovery in sterling.
dollar early euro fall interest start suggesting
Interest rates, I think, will start to fall in the U.S. in 1999, suggesting that the Euro will outperform the dollar in the early stages.
bottom cycle economic euro export improving last level light modest seeing suggest tail terms tunnel
We probably are at the bottom of the economic cycle and that would suggest that there is some modest light at the end of the tunnel particularly in terms of an improving export backdrop, ... The euro is at a much more competitive level than we were seeing at the tail end of last year.
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
case dollar economic few good momentum past run seen weeks
We've seen a very good run in the dollar but it's been the case in the past few weeks that it hasn't been able to make much momentum on the back of what's been pretty good economic data,
ahead continue data fed looking people tomorrow
People are looking ahead to the CPI data tomorrow that I think will probably continue the presumption that the Fed has still got a little way to go with hiking.
beg bit broken further levels move obviously overdone question reasonably technical whether
I think probably yesterday's move was a little bit overdone but obviously we've broken through some reasonably sizeable technical levels and that does beg the question as to whether there is a bit further to run.
activity backdrop data economic fairly likely lower prove rates recent remains risk suggesting supportive time
M&A activity is likely to prove supportive for sterling and with recent economic data suggesting there is no risk of lower rates any time soon, I think the backdrop remains fairly constructive.