Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
crossover fed hike inevitably market pressure
The Fed is going to hike more than the market is anticipating. A crossover would inevitably put more pressure on the pound.
backdrop greenspan growth outlook positive rate time
At the same time we had Greenspan reinforcing that the U.S. growth backdrop and rate outlook are positive for the dollar.
again ahead dollar economy fact fed firmly focused further keeps market widening yield
The U.S. economy is still powering ahead and that keeps the market firmly focused on the fact that the Fed has further to go. With yield spreads widening out again the dollar can keep rallying.
against continuing economy fed grow maintained plenty raising strongly
The U.S economy is continuing to grow strongly and so there's plenty of justification for the Fed to keep raising rates. The dollar's pre-eminence is going to be maintained against the yen and the euro.
downside euro reason riots scope sell
There's scope for the euro on the downside especially if the riots continue. It's another reason to sell the euro.
against argument driving euro main momentum power spread
The narrowing in the spread between two-year bunds and Treasuries is very important, as the interest-rate spread argument is one of the main arguments driving the dollar. I don't think we will have enough momentum to power aggressively against the euro by the end of the year.
asian countries expecting forceful given japan market rest statement strong stronger tolerate
The statement was a lot more forceful than the market was expecting and that has given Asian currencies a strong boost. Japan is going to have to tolerate a stronger currency, like the rest of the countries in the region.
coming continue data higher positive rates strong talk
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background.
case chase election people performed reluctant since
Since the election was called the yen has performed pretty well and it may well be the case that people are reluctant to chase it higher.
fact fairly hands key policy reason reforms risks stay
The fact that two ministries that are key to reforms are not in the hands of the CDU is fairly disappointing. With the risks of policy paralysis, it's another reason to stay away from the euro.
background coming deflation durable economic investors large looks move positive recovery seeing
It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday. The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon.
business majority
They are situated in Europe, but the majority of their business is in dollars,
bit capacity extra logistics pressure problem releasing serious south supply
It's all very well releasing a little bit of extra oil, but the other problem is logistics with refining. Refining capacity is under serious pressure in the South of the U.S., and extra supply isn't going to alleviate the refinery shortage.
case election hit perception reasonable scenario seen surprising worst
It's not surprising we have seen a sizeable hit in the euro. There was a reasonable perception it would be a close-run election and everybody's worst case scenario has come to pass,