Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
backdrop greenspan growth outlook positive rate time
At the same time we had Greenspan reinforcing that the U.S. growth backdrop and rate outlook are positive for the dollar.
coming continue data higher positive rates strong talk
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background.
continues dollar favor fed highly hikes japanese rates short time view yield zero
We're still going to get Japanese rates at zero for some time yet. The Fed continues to underpin the view that more rate hikes are highly probable, and yield premiums favor the dollar in the short term.
activity backdrop data economic fairly likely lower prove rates recent remains risk suggesting supportive time
M&A activity is likely to prove supportive for sterling and with recent economic data suggesting there is no risk of lower rates any time soon, I think the backdrop remains fairly constructive.
becoming betting confident given investors japanese keen people questions rate seem value
Japanese authorities seem very comfortable with the value of the yen and investors are keen to buy. Given that there are questions about the U.S. rate cycle, people are becoming more confident in betting on the yen.
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
crossover fed hike inevitably market pressure
The Fed is going to hike more than the market is anticipating. A crossover would inevitably put more pressure on the pound.
again ahead dollar economy fact fed firmly focused further keeps market widening yield
The U.S. economy is still powering ahead and that keeps the market firmly focused on the fact that the Fed has further to go. With yield spreads widening out again the dollar can keep rallying.
against continuing economy fed grow maintained plenty raising strongly
The U.S economy is continuing to grow strongly and so there's plenty of justification for the Fed to keep raising rates. The dollar's pre-eminence is going to be maintained against the yen and the euro.
downside euro reason riots scope sell
There's scope for the euro on the downside especially if the riots continue. It's another reason to sell the euro.
against argument driving euro main momentum power spread
The narrowing in the spread between two-year bunds and Treasuries is very important, as the interest-rate spread argument is one of the main arguments driving the dollar. I don't think we will have enough momentum to power aggressively against the euro by the end of the year.
asian countries expecting forceful given japan market rest statement strong stronger tolerate
The statement was a lot more forceful than the market was expecting and that has given Asian currencies a strong boost. Japan is going to have to tolerate a stronger currency, like the rest of the countries in the region.
case chase election people performed reluctant since
Since the election was called the yen has performed pretty well and it may well be the case that people are reluctant to chase it higher.
fact fairly hands key policy reason reforms risks stay
The fact that two ministries that are key to reforms are not in the hands of the CDU is fairly disappointing. With the risks of policy paralysis, it's another reason to stay away from the euro.