Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
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If this leads to the shut-off of Iranian oil, I think it would probably mean we've got bigger problems than the price of oil. But if we end up with a 1970s-style oil embargo, we could see prices go markedly higher into uncharted territory.
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We have to wait for the refineries to come back on line, which will take a couple weeks. We're hearing a lot about the importance of getting the power going, but that isn't the only problem we will have reopening the refineries. Homes throughout the region are destroyed and workers need someplace to live.
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The bigger question is does OPEC have excess capacity that it can tap into in the longer-term, ... It appears they're unlikely to raise their quotas, and that's not going to assuage market concerns about their capacity.
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Strong continued gross domestic product growth and solid employment gains should fuel further home sales and may mitigate some of the slowing engendered by higher interest rates.
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The retail sales report was the most significant piece of data we had in weeks and that certainly had the stock market going. It points to a solid first quarter, with earnings growth.
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After the PPI bounced last week due to higher energy costs, there is a big risk of the CPI following suit next week. There is significant upside risk there.
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A further deterioration of the situation in Nigeria, or escalation of nuclear brinkmanship with the Iranians, could push the (New York) price of crude further to 70 dollars.
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Strong levels of unfilled orders imply a strong U.S. economy and implicitly indicate more manufacturing in the pipelines. Clearly, the industrial sector is likely to remain strong in the near- and medium-term.
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The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,
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With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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There is no strategic government reserve of natural gas or refined products, and right now the biggest concerns in the marketplace are for products.
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This warm weather is lowering demand for natural gas and heating oil. What the market does is all in the hands of the weatherman.
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Energy shares took a hit today as crude prices eased. The drag in energy shares, combined with end-of-year low volume, is bringing volatility to the stock markets.